XAUUSD Multi-Timeframe Report for 3 Nov 2026: Oil Bounce vs. Fed Fears, and Today’s Trade Setup
Hi Steemit friends,
Gold had a wild Monday. It spiked about $70 on oil news, then gave it all back on hot US data. Price is now near 3,910. Here's my D1 → M5 analysis, the news behind the move, what other traders are calling, and my setup for today.
Multi-timeframe analysis
D1: the big picture
- Gold has been falling since the ~4,700 peak in August.
- Friday broke the June–July base at 3,950–4,000, and that zone is now resistance.
- RSI dipped below 30 and is turning up. The daily chart is oversold and sitting near the yearly low of 3,855–3,870.
The trend is down, but selling right into the yearly low is risky. Oversold markets can bounce hard.
H1: lower highs
- The last major high was 4,080 (28 Oct). Monday's spike only reached ~3,970, a lower high.
- Price has dropped back to the 3,895–3,900 floor, and RSI is around 42.
M15: support is holding, for now
- The highs keep falling: 3,970, then 3,963, then a steady slide.
- 3,893–3,895 has held twice (Monday and today), and RSI recovered from about 22.
M5: a small bounce
- A higher low at 3,901 and RSI around 62 as price pushes 3,910.
- That's a bounce, not a trend change, until price clears 3,925–3,930, the area where it broke down this morning.
Summary: Bearish trend, but price is ranging between 3,895 and 3,970 ahead of the election and NFP.
The news behind the move
- Oil: Brent fell about 7.6% after the US and Iran signaled openness to talks over Hormuz. Lower oil eased inflation fears and yields, and gold jumped.
- ISM Manufacturing: It beat at 55.5 (consensus 54.6), but Prices Paid stayed at 75.2. December Fed hike odds rose to as high as 75%, and gold reversed.
- Today: US midterm elections, with results coming in overnight.
- Friday 6 Nov: Nonfarm Payrolls.
What other traders and analysts are saying
| Source | View |
|---|---|
| Kitco survey (Wall Street) | 1 of 16 bullish, 63% bearish |
| Kitco survey (retail) | 53% bullish, 30% bearish |
| Pepperstone | Gold must reclaim $4,000 before a genuine recovery |
| TradingView ideas | Mixed. One long targets 4,057 on Iran-deal hopes. Others are short below 3,970–3,980. |
Professionals lean bearish while retail traders are still trying to pick the bottom. That split usually means choppy, two-way price action.
Yesterday's setup, honestly
My Monday setup was to sell 3,928–3,935 with SL 3,948, after an M15 rejection candle. Gold blew through the zone in one fast spike to 3,970, and an H1 close above 3,940 cancelled the idea.
- Waited for confirmation: no trade, no loss.
- Sold without confirmation: stopped out.
Gold then fell back to 3,895, close to the original targets. The lesson: a good level isn't enough. Wait for price to show rejection.
Today's trade setups
Setup A: Sell the rally
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Sell zone | 3,925 – 3,935 |
| Confirmation | M15 rejection candle |
| Stop loss | 3,950 |
| TP1 / TP2 / TP3 | 3,905 / 3,885 / 3,870 |
Setup B: Breakdown sell
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Trigger | M15 close below 3,893 |
| Entry | Retest of 3,895 – 3,900 |
| Stop loss | 3,915 |
| TP1 / TP2 / TP3 | 3,870 / 3,850 / 3,830 |
Bullish case: An H1 close above 3,972 cancels both sells and opens the way to 4,000. I'd stay flat or look for a buy on a pullback.
Risk management this week
- Election results arrive overnight. Reduce lot size and avoid holding large positions through them.
- Risk a maximum of 1–2% per trade.
- Take partial profit at TP1 and move the stop to breakeven.
Trading with an EA this week?
A news filter is essential with the election and NFP this week. Gold EA Pulse, the XAUUSD Expert Advisor I develop, pauses trading around high-impact events like NFP.
- Website: https://goldea.trade
- MT5: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/198422
- MT4: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/203803
Where do you think gold goes after the election: below 3,850 or back to 4,000? Let me know in the comments.
Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a trade signal to copy. Trading gold (XAUUSD) carries a high risk of loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and only trade money you can afford to lose. Disclosure: I am the developer of Gold EA Pulse.
More gold analysis and EA updates: https://goldea.trade